mtg chance of drawing a card in opening hand

psomiades March 09, 2022 card , chance , in , opening Comment

The odds of drawing any one specific card in your opening hand is about 7. Opening hands are much more consistent so aggro decks gain a slight advantage in the BO1 environment.

Made This To Illustrate Probability Of Being Mana Flooded Screwed Opening Hand Also Shows The Importance Of A Low Curve Deck R Magictcg

Youre 399 to draw a certain 4-of in your opening hand.

. If you draw CARDNAME in your initial hand you may reveal it to all players. Yes Ive finally lost all. On the draw If youre on the draw then you should move the probabilities one turn forward.

In a 17-land deck there is a reduced risk of flooding with only a 2 chance to draw 8 lands by turn 6 vs. According to the table you will almost always 946 on the draw 904 on the play hit 3 lands by turn 3 under the prescribed mulligan rule which means that you can almost always play a reasonable game of Magic. The probability of 7 given cards your entire opening hand being bad is 52607 ie.

Now that Im working for StarCityGames as their Magic Card manager Ive been immersed in a world of Magical cards 24-7. Cards in your deck library you are drawing from. The odds of NOT drawing one of those cards in the first draw is 1 - 460 5660.

The chance of a blue card in our opening hand is 65. The odds of not having any of the four cards in the first card is 5660 as I. Opening hand Since youre assumed to be on the play the lefternmost numbers for turn 1 represent the probability of drawing at least one copy of a certain card in your starting seven.

By turn three there is 75 percent chance that well draw one of our eight blue spells. First the chance of a Delver in our opening hand is 40. It takes into account the fact that each draw decreases the size of your library by one and therefore the probability of success changes on each draw.

To calculate the odds of the entire first hand we can do it backwards. Im not great at math so Im not going to find the exact numbers for you but there are a ton more combinations of hands you can draw than that. If there are four such cards the odds are 460.

Not only can Mystic Remora draw you cards but it can also drain your opponents mana resources just make sure that you have enough mana for the cumulative upkeep each turn. 5 -You have a 100 chance to open this hand. Welcome to the second in a series of my top fifty cards of all time list.

Last time around we went through the Top 50 White Cards of all time. Mystic Remora is a cheap way of being able to draw cards fast especially if your opponent doesnt have four mana to stop its ability each time it activates. Trying to draw more specific cards than that is going to decrease your odds dramatically without redundancy.

A 5 chance in a randomized environment. I eat Magic dream Magic and play Magic Online obsessively. To find the chance of opening one of your 5 copies of Dragon Ravine Terraforming is basically a copy of Ravine along with at least 1 Dragunity Dux or Dragunity Phalanx both of which you run at 3 use.

Your maths is slightly wrong here since you didnt replace cards in your deck after you draw in your calculations. In your case the odds are 49 or 53 percent rounded to the nearest whole percent depending on whether youre on the play or on the draw. The idea didnt work so well on a green creature we didnt even let the audience vote.

If you do shuffle your hand into your library and draw a new hand of seven cards. Probability of making land drops by turn. Therefore the probability that of drawing at least one good card is 1 - 367 ie.

- Turn 1 Card Draw. The big takeaway here is you will draw your splash color spells frequently so you better have the mana to cast them. The probability of hitting 4 lands by turn 4 is sufficient.

Plug those numbers in and hit Calculate and it gives you four values. Land Cards in Deck. For the first part of your question your odds are about 3995 of drawing a particular card in your opening 7 card hand given 4 in a 60 card pool.

The one youre interested in is P X 2 meaning the odds that you get that many or more of what you want. 835 on the draw 747 on the play. If you are in a situation where you draw 7 then draw 7 more without replacement you are effectively drawing 14 cards instead then your probability changes to 6653.

The hypergeometric MTG calculator can describe the likelihood of any number of successes when drawing from a deck of Magic cards. In this case its 1.

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